For five major currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, JPY and CHF) we offer you the most likely scenarios in the medium term (three weeks to 12 months ahead) in four different publications. Every fortnight, we offer hedging options for sellers and buyers of dollars and pounds and we write a short, clear analysis of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc against the euro. In all reports, we specifically indicate the levels we anticipate.
Our monthly FX poll provides an overview of forecasts by approximately 60 major banks for the most important currency pairs.
The interest rate spread between de dollar and the euro is experiencing downward-pressure, but this is overshadowed by amongst other things a dollar squeeze and higher returns in the US. This causes EUR/USD to depreciate.
EUR/GBP has already discounted a lot of the negative consequences of Brexit. Still, a no-deal Brexit will cause additional strengthening of EUR/GBP to around 1,00. On the other hand, EUR/GBP will depreciate a lot in case of a soft Brexit, postponement or the UK even deciding to cancel leaving the EU..
The SNB tries to prevent a fast and significant appreciation of the franc by way of negative Swiss interest rates and currency interventions. However, these policies come with drawbacks which limit the latitude for the SNB.
Even though Japan has stimulated the economy both in monetary and fiscal ways, the risk of a deflationary spiral remains high, because of both low economic growth and inflation and high government debt.
The Monthly FX Poll consists of an overview of the predictions of approx. 50 parties (including banks and brokers) for the most commonly traded currency pairs. In addition to the data for each party it includes the mean, median, highest and lowest price.