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What are the specific risks for the financial markets? What political risks will have an impact?
What levels for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP can you expect in the months ahead. What are the scenarios?
To what levels will interest rates rise? And how fast? Is it necessary to hedge your interest rate risk?

Risk & Strategy publications

Exploding debt will create a different economy

Eddy Markus
Friday, 3 April 2020
Eddy Markus

Most lockdowns will likely be toned down in four to eight weeks. However, economies won’t bounce  back to their former levels. This together with sky-high debt loads will drive authorities towards inflation policies. This stagflation scenario will have immense repercussions for financial markets.

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Will Europe withstand the corona beating?

Andy Langenkamp
Thursday, 26 March 2020
Andy Langenkamp

Does Europe have sufficient monetary and fiscal weapons to battle the coronavirus and will the continent succeed in becoming a relative attractive place for investors in these disturbing times?

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More Risk & Strategy publications

Foreign Currencies publications

Foreign exchange markets dominated by short squeeze

Eddy Markus
Monday, 23 March 2020
Eddy Markus

The unwinding of carry trades and demand for dollars to reduce dollar denominated debts have resulted in higher FX volatility and a stronger dollar. How long will this continue and how does it influence the outlook for EUR/USD?

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Coronavirus renders US economy and dollar vulnerable

Eddy Markus
Monday, 9 March 2020
Eddy Markus

We have adjusted our targets for EUR/USD and USD/JPY due to a bigger-than-expected negative impact of the coronavirus on the US economy…

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More Foreign Currencies publications

Interest Rates publications

Monetary financing of rescue packages will trigger a significant rise in interest rates

Ron Markus
Monday, 30 March 2020
Ron Markus

Longterm interest rates in the US and stronger Eurozone economies have risen since the March 9 lows. The million dollar question is whether this is due to renewed confidence in economic recovery or the result of increased distrust of the creditworthiness of governments. The latter would imply much higher long-term rates in the future...

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Fed and ECB come to the rescue of the markets, but a recession is inevitable

Ron Markus
Monday, 16 March 2020
Ron Markus

Recession in the US and Europe is a near certainty, but policy makers could prevent the recession from causing the next credit crisis. The necessary monetary and fiscal measures could cause rising long-term interest rates in the future. However, for now the decline in long-term rates hasn’t ended yet…

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More Interest Rates publications