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What are the specific risks for the financial markets? What political risks will have an impact?
What levels for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP can you expect in the months ahead. What are the scenarios?
To what levels will interest rates rise? And how fast? Is it necessary to hedge your interest rate risk?

Risk & Strategy publications

How soon will the shift from deflation to inflation be evident?

Eddy Markus
Thursday, 23 January 2020
Eddy Markus

Western central banks have pulled out all the stops to boost growth and inflation. Up until now without the desired result. The threat of the coronavirus could hit economic growth hard. In this report, read our thoughts on the risks of the virus and whether we expect politicians to seek refuge in running huge deficits to boost their economies.

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US & China: We and them versus we or them

Andy Langenkamp
Thursday, 16 January 2020
Andy Langenkamp

Is the Phase One trade deal a ceasefire that will ultimately lead to peace or the run-up to an even greater and longer-lasting clash between Beijing and Washington? Answering this question is essential for assessing where stock markets will be heading.

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Foreign Currencies publications

Markets seek too much confirmation in recent employment data

Eddy Markus
Monday, 13 January 2020
Eddy Markus

We do not agree with the market consensus on economic growth expectations. What happens next depends greatly on whether or not and to what degree fiscal stimulus will be applied. Read why we have a different take on the prospects for the world economy than the consensus view.

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The removal of risks is temporarily positive for EUR and GBP

Eddy Markus
Monday, 16 December 2019
Eddy Markus

The UK election result and the phase I trade deal between the US and China have contributed to the risk-on phase and the upward pressure on the euro and the pound. However, there are a number of factors that limit the upside potential for both currencies…

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Interest Rates publications

A substantial risk-off phase is approaching

Ron Markus
Monday, 20 January 2020
Ron Markus

The trade war truce and improving growth forecasts have been a boon for stocks. However, long-term interest rates have failed to catch up. Is this about to change?

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US – Iran conflict: temporary interruption of the uptrend in long-term interest rates

Ron Markus
Monday, 6 January 2020
Ron Markus

The US – Iran conflict could have severe consequences, causing a prolonged flight to safe government bonds. However, we expect the current decline in US and European bond yields to be temporary, while at the same time the upside potential for long-term yields is limited this year due to several factors which we will discuss in this publication. 

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More Interest Rates publications