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What are the specific risks for the financial markets? What political risks will have an impact?
What levels for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP can you expect in the months ahead. What are the scenarios?
To what levels will interest rates rise? And how fast? Is it necessary to hedge your interest rate risk?

Risk & Strategy publications

The energy transition could offer Europe a major boost

Eddy Markus
Friday, 13 December 2019
Eddy Markus

Central banks have used up most of their ammunition, while fiscal stimulus is met with a great deal of resistance. If the global economy falls short of expectations in the year ahead, all the stops will be pulled out to keep the economy going. Will the energy transition and the approach to climate change provide Europe with a sorely needed boost?

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Brexit Done vs Brexiternity

Andy Langenkamp
Thursday, 5 December 2019
Andy Langenkamp

Will British voters deliver the desired UK election outcome to the markets and would this result continue to please the markets in the long term, resulting in a stronger pound and an outperformance of British shares versus European stocks?

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More Risk & Strategy publications

Foreign Currencies publications

EUR/USD continues to have limited upside potential

Eddy Markus
Monday, 2 December 2019
Eddy Markus

Global economic prospects are improving somewhat, albeit from a low level and only because of very expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. The world economy starts to look like a ship adrift. In this publication, we will dive into what all this means for EUR/USD and whether the yen and Swiss franc can profit from these developments. 

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Uncertainty about Brexit and trade relations will continue to cause problems for EUR and GBP

Eddy Markus
Monday, 18 November 2019
Eddy Markus

The increase in EUR/USD thus far has been disappointing given the decreasing interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone. Is the euro a weak currency or is the dollar a surprisingly resilient currency in the face of multiple rate cuts and quantitative easing by the Fed?

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More Foreign Currencies publications

Interest Rates publications

US and EMU yield curves to steepen, followed by flattening

Ron Markus
Monday, 9 December 2019
Ron Markus

China and the US are close to a partial trade deal and Brexit is also close to more clarity. However, will optimism about a trade deal and Brexit  be enough to push long term interest rates up and steepen the yield curves on a structural basis?

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Fed and ECB likely to effect more rate cuts in 2020

Ron Markus
Monday, 25 November 2019
Ron Markus

A Phase I trade deal between the US and China alone won’t stimulate growth much. However, growth could get a boost if a partial deal would be accompanied by large-scale fiscal stimulus. But this kind of stimulus will only come to pass during a crisis. Therefore, US and EMU short-term and long-term rates will remain in a downtrend for the time-being.

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More Interest Rates publications