Western central banks have pulled out all the stops to boost growth and inflation. Up until now without the desired result. The threat of the coronavirus could hit economic growth hard. In this report, read our thoughts on the risks of the virus and whether we expect politicians to seek refuge in running huge deficits to boost their economies.
Is the Phase One trade deal a ceasefire that will ultimately lead to peace or the run-up to an even greater and longer-lasting clash between Beijing and Washington? Answering this question is essential for assessing where stock markets will be heading.
We do not agree with the market consensus on economic growth expectations. What happens next depends greatly on whether or not and to what degree fiscal stimulus will be applied. Read why we have a different take on the prospects for the world economy than the consensus view.
The UK election result and the phase I trade deal between the US and China have contributed to the risk-on phase and the upward pressure on the euro and the pound. However, there are a number of factors that limit the upside potential for both currencies…
The US – Iran conflict could have severe consequences, causing a prolonged flight to safe government bonds. However, we expect the current decline in US and European bond yields to be temporary, while at the same time the upside potential for long-term yields is limited this year due to several factors which we will discuss in this publication.