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What are the specific risks for the financial markets? What political risks will have an impact?
What levels for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP can you expect in the months ahead. What are the scenarios?
Publications
To what levels will interest rates rise? And how fast? Is it necessary to hedge your interest rate risk?

Risk & Strategy publications

Are market prices factoring in a new world order?

Eddy Markus
Thursday, 8 August 2019
Eddy Markus

The trade war between the US and China also threatens to turn into a currency war. In the meantime, there are growing doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy. The bond markets are already factoring in this gloomy scenario. Will the other markets follow suit?

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Exaggerated optimism after busy political weekend

Andy Langenkamp
Thursday, 4 July 2019
Andy Langenkamp

Financial markets signal that the most important and urgent problems besetting the global economy are reasonably under control, for now, whereas the underlying forces are not being addressed. The result is very sluggish growth. Are the political trends in line with this outlook? And, will the relative lull soon be over?

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More Risk & Strategy publications

Foreign Currencies publications

Dollar to strengthen, despite shrinking interest rate differential with Europe

Eddy Markus
Monday, 12 August 2019
Eddy Markus

The interest rate spread between de dollar and the euro is experiencing downward-pressure, but this is overshadowed by amongst other things a dollar squeeze and higher returns in the US. This causes EUR/USD to depreciate.

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Brexit stays decisive for pound exchange rate

Ron Markus
Monday, 12 August 2019
GBP
Ron Markus

EUR/GBP has already discounted a lot of the negative consequences of Brexit. Still, a no-deal Brexit will cause additional strengthening of EUR/GBP to around 1,00. On the other hand, EUR/GBP will depreciate a lot in case of a soft Brexit, postponement or the UK even deciding to cancel leaving the EU..

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More Foreign Currencies publications

Interest Rates publications

Temporary bond yield climb is likely

Ron Markus
Monday, 5 August 2019
Ron Markus

The ECB has few levers to pull left to stimulate growth in case the trade war will result in lower business and consumer confidence and an economic recession. This could lead to a further decline in long-term rates, although we think a near-term upward correction of the 10-year German interest rate is likely. In the long-term, more fiscal easing is necessary to start a more structural uptrend in European long-term rates.  

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Yield curve to flatten, then steepen Contents

Eddy Markus
Monday, 5 August 2019
Eddy Markus

A growing number of investors believe the trade war will cause a US recession and this means increasing pressure on the Fed to do more to stimulate the economy. However, the US economy is less exposed to foreign trade and enjoys a robust inflow of capital. Hence, more Fed easing might actually boost growth more than expected and will result in higher rates and a steeper yield curve in the coming quarters. 

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More Interest Rates publications