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Which paths will European countries take in the most likely scenarios for the geopolitical showdown between Beijing and Washington?
We identify four scenarios for future relations between China and the U.S. and like-minded states. We discuss the chances of those scenarios becoming reality and the implications for currencies, interest rates, bonds, stocks, oil and precious metals.
We expect tighter monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Furthermore, USD/JPY has reached levels at which Japan usually intervened to prevent further yen decline. These two factors improve the outlook for the yen...
With the UK labor market remaining very tight and wage increases rising significantly, investors expect UK interest rates to rise faster than those in the EMU and the US. Against this backdrop, the pound may continue to slowly appreciate against the euro.